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Charleston Homes Supply & Demend

Is the Lowcountry real estate market returning to a healthy balance of supply and demand? Signs are subtle but positive.

Dissect the data, and you could find a small sign that conditions in the local real estate market are stabilizing.

Fewer homes are for sale in Charleston compared with about six months ago, when the number peaked at about 11,100 residences. Figures from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors show a 7 percent decline to about 10,350 homes across all areas, with even sharper dips in areas such as Hanahan and West Ashley.

The number of homes for sale in Charleston is still high by historical standards. And that figure is edging up again, which is normal heading into the busy spring home-buying season. But the subtle decline in listings since fall has many hoping that the residential market is beginning to shift back to a healthier balance of supply and demand.

"It's a welcome sign for people who have homes to sell, but it's not a sign that we've seen a bottom," said William Harrison, a Charleston-based consultant and real estate lecturer at the University of South Carolina's Moore School of Business.

Rising home sales would be the clearest signal of an uptick in the market, Harrison said. But the number of homes for sale, formally called inventory, also is a crucial indicator. If fewer homes are for sale, competition among buyers tends to heat up. Homes then sell faster and close to, if not at, the asking price. That's a seller's market.

Inventory also affects purchasing decisions. If there are fewer homes to look at, a buyer might be willing to commit to a property more quickly. The opposite usually holds true if there are too many. After the housing boom peaked in Charleston in early 2005, the number of homes for sale shot up as homeowners continued to list existing properties and builders kept adding new inventory.

Throughout 2006, the number of local listings almost doubled, reaching nearly 10,000. Last year, the figure continued to climb at a slower rate until it hit a peak last fall. All the while, values have held up. The median home price for the region was $211,970 as of the end of January, compared to $202,178 in September, according to the latest data.

The supply of homes for sale has been falling at different rates across the Lowcountry. In the past six months, Hanahan, Daniel Island, Mount Pleasant and West Ashley have seen double-digit declines. James Island, Goose Creek and Summerville have seen more modest pullbacks. The number of homes on the market in North Charleston inside Interstate 526 bucked the trend and rose.

No single factor is credited for the drop-off.

One reason is that more than 4,000 residential properties have been sold in the past six months, with some sellers offering creative deals or lowering their asking prices to attract buyers. Also, builders have slowed new construction to keep pace with the reduced demand. In addition, sellers have taken properties off the market or let their listings expire.

"They realize that perhaps they are underwater and they can't get what they would need to recover or pay off the lender," said Harrison of USC. "When you're faced with that, for the most part people will choose to hold on to them." But inventory also is seasonal number, making it hard to tell whether the latest decline is a long-term trend or a matter of fewer people wanting to sell during the late fall and early winter seasons.

Holmes said the biggest issue affecting inventory levels is overpriced properties, and he partly blames the industry for that. He also said the market's natural correction is being hampered by sellers who are only testing the market and are asking too much.

"If Realtors and sellers continue to overlist properties, it's going to take us longer to get out of this," Holmes said. "We can choose how long it's going to take."


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